The Gambler’s Fallacy looks at good fortune and says, I’m due! For example, if a coin toss resulted in heads twice in a row, the gambler’s fallacy says it will land on tails the third time, because tails is “due.” But the results of past coin flips have no impact on a future coin flip.
Instead, each coin flip has a 50/50 chance of resulting in heads or tails. Past losses do not cause future wins.
When it comes to games of pure chance, the events are entirely disconnected—the past has no influence on the future[1] It’s like the 2:00 a.m. gambler at the slot machine who thinks, I’ve been losing for the last three hours, I’m bound to win this time. I’m due!
I am not a gambler but I have been fooled by the gambler’s fallacy all my life. I always think I’m going to win on the next roll of the dice. I remember having amazing job interviews and being certain I would get the job—even jobs I did not want—because I was so sure I was due for one reason or another.
In 2007, I finished writing a novel and I just knew it would make a big splash. Why? Because I was due. (It was also a timely book about the civil war in Sudan when that was all anyone was talking about.) The book never saw the light of day.
The gambler’s fallacy holds special appeal for believers. We know we serve a just God. He can make all things FAIR.
(Is that what Jesus said in Revelation 21:5? “Behold, I make all things FAIR?” Ha ha.)
Believers know God sees the unfairness. He knows your sacrifices. And He is God—He has those heavenly scales of justice to balance the good and bad. So why doesn’t He balance things out right now–on the next roll of the dice?
But God sees a BIGGER PICTURE. He sees eternity.
Maybe God looks at you and me and agrees: “Yes, you are certainly DUE. You endured well. And great is your reward. IN HEAVEN.”
He also says, “LEAN NOT on your own understanding,” Proverbs 3:5. Because in spite of all the confidence you gain from the gambler’s fallacy, “You do NOT know what tomorrow will bring,” James 4:14.
But one thing you do know: Jesus said, “In this world YOU WILL HAVE TROUBLE” John 16:33. That’s what you can believe in: trouble in your future. But “our troubles will produce for us an eternal glory that exceeds them in every way,” 2 Corinthians 4:17. Things will work out for you—and it will be more than merely “fair.” Forget what you think you’re due. God will bless you with an eternal glory that will outweigh your sufferings so much, the two things cannot even be compared! Romans 8:18.
The blessings to come in eternity are so heavy, if you put them on a scale next to your problems, the blessings would break the scale. NO COMPARISON. Stop thinking like the 2:00 a.m. gambler at the slot machine. Let He who began a good work in you keep on bringing you closer to completion, Philippians 1:6. His work in you is all that you need.
To put it another way, don’t look at your sufferings as evidence of some magical and immediate destiny on earth. The gambler’s fallacy is wrong: you are not due to win on the next roll of the dice. Instead, train your mind to see your sufferings as evidence of your incredible future IN HEAVEN. That is where you will be rewarded beyond your wildest dreams.
“Eye has not seen, nor ear heard, nor has it entered into the imagination of any man all that God has prepared for those who truly love Him” 1 Corinthians 2:9.
Life is not a sprint, but a marathon–and the best rewards come at the end.
Ask God to show you where you have embraced the gambler’s fallacy. Then release your grip on the magical destiny that the gambler’s fallacy tells you is just around the corner. Maybe you will land a new job or publish that novel or find love. But don’t put your hope in the magical thinking of the gambler’s fallacy. Instead, take your struggles and problems–the things that convince you that you are due–and embrace them as evidence of the amazing rewards God is storing up for you in Heaven.
God, fill us with an eternal perspective. Remind us that the blessings of Heaven are so great that today’s problems cannot even be compared to those future blessings.
ΑΩ
[1] By contrast, in mixed games of chance and skill, like baseball, past failures CAN influence future results, because the past can impact the level of skill at which a team plays a future game.
Household Words: 