The Gambler’s Fallacy.

The Gambler’s Fallacy looks at good fortune and says, I’m due!  For example, if a coin toss resulted in heads twice in a row, the gambler’s fallacy says it will land on tails the third time, because tails is “due.” But the results of past coin flips have no impact on a future coin flip.

Instead, each coin flip has a 50/50 chance of resulting in heads or tails. Past losses do not cause future wins.

When it comes to games of pure chance, the events are entirely disconnected—the past has no influence on the future[1] It’s like the 2:00 a.m. gambler at the slot machine who thinks, I’ve been losing for the last three hours, I’m bound to win this time.  I’m due!

I am not a gambler but I have been fooled by the gambler’s fallacy all my life. I always think I’m going to win on the next roll of the dice.  I remember having amazing job interviews and being certain I would get the job—even jobs I did not want—because I was so sure I was due for one reason or another. 

In 2007, I finished writing a novel and I just knew it would make a big splash. Why? Because I was due. (It was also a timely book about the civil war in Sudan when that was all anyone was talking about.)  The book never saw the light of day.

The gambler’s fallacy holds special appeal for believers. We know we serve a just God. He can make all things FAIR.

(Is that what Jesus said in Revelation 21:5? “Behold, I make all things FAIR?” Ha ha.)

Believers know God sees the unfairness. He knows your sacrifices. And He is God—He has those heavenly scales of justice to balance the good and bad. So why doesn’t He balance things out right now–on the next roll of the dice?

But God sees a BIGGER PICTURE. He sees eternity.  

Maybe God looks at you and me and agrees: “Yes, you are certainly DUE. You endured well. And great is your reward.  IN HEAVEN.”

He also says, “LEAN NOT on your own understanding,” Proverbs 3:5. Because in spite of all the confidence you gain from the gambler’s fallacy, “You do NOT know what tomorrow will bring,” James 4:14. 

But one thing you do know: Jesus said, “In this world YOU WILL HAVE TROUBLE” John 16:33. That’s what you can believe in: trouble in your future. But “our troubles will produce for us an eternal glory that exceeds them in every way,” 2 Corinthians 4:17. Things will work out for you—and it will be more than merely “fair.” Forget what you think you’re due.  God will bless you with an eternal glory that will outweigh your sufferings so much, the two things cannot even be compared! Romans 8:18.

The blessings to come in eternity are so heavy, if you put them on a scale next to your problems, the blessings would break the scale. NO COMPARISON. Stop thinking like the 2:00 a.m. gambler at the slot machine. Let He who began a good work in you keep on bringing you closer to completion, Philippians 1:6. His work in you is all that you need.

To put it another way, don’t look at your sufferings as evidence of some magical and immediate destiny on earth. The gambler’s fallacy is wrong: you are not due to win on the next roll of the dice. Instead, train your mind to see your sufferings as evidence of your incredible future IN HEAVEN. That is where you will be rewarded beyond your wildest dreams.

“Eye has not seen, nor ear heard, nor has it entered into the imagination of any man all that God has prepared for those who truly love Him” 1 Corinthians 2:9.

Life is not a sprint, but a marathon–and the best rewards come at the end.

Ask God to show you where you have embraced the gambler’s fallacy. Then release your grip on the magical destiny that the gambler’s fallacy tells you is just around the corner. Maybe you will land a new job or publish that novel or find love. But don’t put your hope in the magical thinking of the gambler’s fallacy. Instead, take your struggles and problems–the things that convince you that you are due–and embrace them as evidence of the amazing rewards God is storing up for you in Heaven.

God, fill us with an eternal perspective. Remind us that the blessings of Heaven are so great that today’s problems cannot even be compared to those future blessings.

ΑΩ

[1] By contrast, in mixed games of chance and skill, like baseball, past failures CAN influence future results, because the past can impact the level of skill at which a team plays a future game.

Treasure Your Treasure. 1 Thessalonians 5:21.

Football players learn early protect the ball. Linebackers will punch the ball to knock it from your hands—and if you drop it, you will probably not be the one who picks it up. You MUST hold on tight or you will lose the ball and hurt your team.

When you find something you love, hold on tight! This goes for relationships, work positions, and more. Never let your anger or envy or pettiness or laziness or lust destroy something in your life that is a source of true joy. If you are bearing fruit for the Lord, PROTECT THE FRUIT-BEARING TREE like it’s your great treasure–because it is!

A friend we’ll call Tom was upset with something in a sermon and complained about it to me. I disagreed, but when I could not persuade him, I tried reminding Tom of how happy he and his wife had been at our church in recent years.  “You are so involved, so plugged-in. You’ve been posting about it every Sunday afternoon, telling the world about the cute kids you’re teaching in Sunday school.  Don’t put all that at risk.”

But there was no convincing him and Tom drove that bus right off the cliff. He and his wife have only been to church once in the two years since and only to support some friends. Tom did not cling tightly to the great things happening around him at church. He failed to treasure his treasure.  I know he would argue he took a stand for doctrine, but even if his position were correct, the point was trivial and not worth destroying something great.

You see, here’s the thing. You have an enemy. And while you are busy critiquing your pastor’s sermon, the devil is busy filling you with righteous indignation. Suddenly you’re fuming over something trivial and you let it destroy relationships. Marriages are destroyed this way every day—not by huge betrayals like adultery, at least not at first. It starts with fighting about who will wash the dishes, and then resentment metastasizes throughout the marriage.  Relationship cancer begins with anger over trivial things—and the anger blinds you to the danger threatening the one thing that matters most.

Paul says, “Hold fast to what is good” 1 Thessalonians 5:21.

Henry Blackaby put it this way:

“Hold fast to what is good, or the world will take it away. Satan is the relentless enemy of good. When he saw that what God gave Adam and Eve was good, he set about to take it away from them. When he saw that King David was pleasing to God, he attempted to destroy David’s relationship with God. Never take the good in your life for granted. If you do not hold on to it firmly, it may be lost.”[1]

Cling tightly to what is good. Protect it from your own pride and anger, or it will be destroyed. Winning the battle is not worth it if it means losing the war.

ΑΩ

[1] Henry & Richard Blackaby, EXPERIENCING GOD DAY BY DAY.

How Do You Do … Without? Jeremiah 35:6-9.

Most of us are prepared to do without—on occasion.  Dieting is easy if it’s temporary. It’s not that hard to give up ice cream for a day or two.  But what if someone told you to give up something for the rest of your life? Jack Lalanne, the “Godfather of Fitness,” met a health food speaker when Jack was 15. The speaker, Paul Bragg, asked what young Jack had eaten in the last 24 hours.

“Cakes, pies, ice cream.”

“Son, you’re a walking garbage can.”

Bragg told him if he would eat right and exercise he could become “healthy, fit, popular, smart, and happy.” After that day in 1929, Jack NEVER ATE SWEETS AGAIN.  He went on to become a fitness guru, birthing a worldwide fitness industry through his gyms and television shows, and kept eating clean until his death at 96! (He lived forty years longer than his father. Read about him here.)

Has God asked you to give up anything for the rest of your life? Do you fear missing out? Face it: No one gets to do it all or have it all. (Consider the example of marriage: God calls most of us to to be married to only one person for our entire lives–billions of others on earth, and they’re all off-limits).

And God rewards those who exercise discipline–who live lives of appropriate abstinence. One day Jeremiah told the king to bring the Rechabites to the temple to drink a glass of wine. When the Rechabites heard the offer, they spoke up:

“We do not drink wine, for Jonadab [our ancestor] commanded: ‘You and your sons must never drink wine. You must not build a house or sow seed or plant a vineyard. Those things are not for you. Rather, you must live in tents your whole life, so you may live a long time on the soil….’  We have obeyed the voice of Jonadab in all he commanded us. So we haven’t drunk wine our whole lives … [or] built houses to live in and do not have vineyard, field, or seed” Jeremiah 35:6-9.

Can you imagine giving anything up for YOUR WHOLE LIFE? I can’t imagine giving up sweets for the rest of my life like Jack LaLanne. Yet, these people gave up not only wine, but HOUSES! What a commitment. And although God had told the Jewish people to build houses in Babylon and to plant vineyards, the Rechabites (worshippers of God, but apparently not descendants of Jacob) honored the wishes of their ancestor by living in tents for several generations.

And God blessed them.  “Because you obeyed your ancestor, … [your family] will never fail to have a man to always stand before Me” Jeremiah 35:18-19. Some believe descendants of the Rechabites are still alive today.

Abstinence is tough. Giving things up is tough. Self-denial is hard. Telling yourself ‘NO’ is hard.

But God rewards self-discipline.

“All discipline for the moment seems not to be joyful but sorrowful, but to those who have been trained by it, afterwards it yields the peaceful fruit of righteousness” Hebrews 12:11. 

God, prepare us to live lives marked by great self-discipline. Grant us self-control and the humility and contentment to say ‘No’ to many things. Deliver us from F.O.M.O., the Fear Of Missing Out, and from envy of those who receive what we want for ourselves.

ΑΩ

RESPECT THE WORD. Jeremiah 33:3.

I always thought grownups were a little silly about Bibles: don’t drop it, don’t set it on the floor, don’t wrinkle the pages, don’t let it get wet, etc. But that comes from a good motive. Most people in history had no Bible or shared one, and had to treasure it.

And consider this: when Jeremiah wrote God’s message on a scroll and sent it to the king to be read, King Jehoiakim burned it. It was winter and the king was sitting by the fire. Each time the scribe read 3 or 4 columns, the king sliced them off with a knife and threw the parchment in the fire. Soon the entire scroll was burned.

I wonder how God felt?

God told Jeremiah to write it down again. This time God added punishment: “the king of Babylon will come and destroy the land … there will be no king to sit on David’s throne, and King Jehoiakim’s corpse will be thrown in the street to rot. Even his descendants and officers will be punished….” Jeremiah 36:29-31.

Can you imagine treating God’s word that way? Especially when it is the world’s only written copy? And yet, many of us own Bibles, maybe more than one, and they sit collecting dust. Is the one who never reads the word any better off than the one who destroys it in the fire?

We should cherish the word, love the word, and CRAVE the word. Look back three chapters. God says He wants to reveal to you amazing things:

“Call to Me and I will answer you and show you great and mighty things that you do not know.” Jeremiah 33:3

That sounds awesome, doesn’t it? God calls Himself the “Revealer of Mysteries” (Daniel 2:29), and He reveals them through His word. But you gotta open it! Ask Him to give you the desire, then pray the prayer of Jeremiah 33:3. He will amaze you! For example, a THIRD cool thing I read today (3 of 4) [1] was that the angels are as innumerable as the sand of the sea! (Jeremiah 33:22). That’s an incredible army on our side!!

God, give us a passion, a hunger for your word! Amaze us! Help us feast on it daily, and be amazed by Your revealed mysteries!

ΑΩ

[1] The fourth was that the descendants of Jonadab reported that their ancestor told them never to drink—and they had been obedient to him for generations! Further, though drinking is not forbidden in scripture, God blessed these people greatly for honoring their ancestor. Jeremiah 35:6,14,18-19.

P.S. It is worth noting that when the king burned God’s message, God responded by having Jeremiah dictate it to his scribe a second time, just as when Moses broke the tablets of the law, God helped Moses make new tablets. GOD PROTECTS HIS WORD, no matter what skeptics may say.

You Have Not Because You Ask Not. Jeremiah 33:3

Call to me—ask me—and I will show you great and incomprehensible, amazing things that you do not know. Jeremiah 33:3

Just ask. Are you asking? Am I? –What an amazing promise.

ΑΩ

HOW DO YOU PROVE OWNERSHIP? Jeremiah 32:9-15.

When I was a child, Mama wrote my name on the tags of my coats, so they would not be lost or stolen. The older and more careless I became, the more things needed my name on them: books, toys, balls, bats, bicycles.  The simplest way to assert dominion over goods (portable property) is to write your name.

But what about land, what we call “real property”? How can you prevent someone stronger showing up and claiming it belongs to him? The best way to protect real estate is today’s recording system: file written deeds with the local government so everyone can go to the same source for information.  This system dates back to the prophet Jeremiah.  To give the banished Israelites hope God would one day would bring them back to Israel, He instructs Jeremiah to purchase real estate.

“So I bought the field … and I weighed out to him the money—17 shekels of silver. I recorded the purchase on a scroll [today’s deed], sealed it [today’s signature], called in witnesses [today’s notary] … I took the purchase agreement … and gave it to Baruch [like the county clerk].”  Jeremiah instructs Baruch to record and file the deed.  “Take these scrolls and put them in an earthen storage jar so they will last a long time. For this is what the Lord of Hosts, the God of Israel, says: ‘Houses, fields, and vineyards will again be bought in this land’” Jeremiah 32:9-15.

God uses this purchase to give His people hope: you will not be in Babylon forever.

But here’s what I find amazing: the recording system for keeping track of property ownership that Jeremiah creates in this passage is identical to the recording system in use today, some 2,600 years later.

What about people? How do we assert dominion over our betrothed? Rather than write a name on a husband or wife, we place a ring on his or her finger. The ring serves as a warning: this one is no longer available.

To summarize: You can protect your ownership by writing your name on things, or by filing documents with the government. You can assert dominion over a spouse with a wedding band.

And—you may not know this—God asserts His ownership over us. How? By giving us His Holy Spirit.

“When you believed, you were marked in Him with a seal, the promised Holy Spirit, who is a deposit guaranteeing our inheritance until the redemption of those who are God’s possession” Ephesians 1:13-14.  (We are God’s possession—He OWNS us. See also 2 Corinthians 1:22.)

Imagine that. God owns you—and He writes His name on you with the Holy Spirit to show the universe that you belong to Him!

ΑΩ

DOES GOD HAVE AN ANGRY FACE?Jeremiah 33:9.

Children are so honest. I remember mine asking me directly, “Daddy, are you mad right now?” Kids look for clues and when the clues are not clear, they just ask.

Children wonder about God in the same simple terms: ‘Does God have an angry face or a happy face?’

God is angry about sin, injustice, corruption, and perversion. He is passionate about justice.

But God does not define Himself by anger. Throughout the word, He reminds us that He is holy. But when God labels Himself, He does not choose ANGER.

He does not say “God IS anger.” He says, “God IS love” 1 John 4:8.

Holiness reminds me how KIND God is. Holiness means God is pure, of course. But when it comes to the way God treats me, I know He is KIND. You see, because God is holy, God is kind to me. And God is going to bless me, not because I deserve to be blessed, but because GOD IS LOVE. Consider how deeply He desires to bless His people. It’s THROUGHOUT the Bible. He blesses us in spite of our disobedience:

“I take delight in you … Call to Me and I will answer you and show you great and mighty things… I will bring health and healing… I will let you experience the abundance of peace and truth… I will purify you from the wrongs you have committed … I will forgive… You will TREMBLE WITH AWE BECAUSE OF ALL THE GOOD AND ALL THE PEACE I WILL BRING ABOUT FOR YOU… There will be heard again a sound of joy and gladness… I will restore the fortunes of the land….” Jeremiah 32:41, 33:3,6,8,9,11.

Do you fail? Do you sin? Of course. Israel also failed. But God wants to forgive, and more than that, He wants to bless. God looks at His children and smiles.

Dear God, thank you for your kindness, your holiness, your forgiveness, and the undeserved blessings you pour on us so generously. Help us love You more every day!

ΑΩ

PRAY ABOUT PRAYING. Jeremiah 32:42.

When someone is ill, we tell them to pray. Then we tell them to pray with faith, to pray BELIEVING. But what if you don’t have faith? Can you muster up faith? Can you strengthen your own faith?

I don’t know—but you can pray FOR faith.

If you need more faith, ask God! If you want to read the Bible, but lack discipline, ask God!

But will God help you do what you should do on your own? Of course!

“I will put fear of Me in their hearts so they will never again turn away from Me.” Jeremiah 32:42.

God says He will change hearts! He will reach into their hearts and make them fear the Lord.

“The king’s heart is like channels of water in the hand of the Lord; He turns it wherever He wishes” Proverbs 21:1.

“I will give you a new heart, and put a new spirit in you; I will remove your heart of stone and give you a heart of flesh” Ezekiel 36:26.

“I will give them a heart to know Me…” Jeremiah 24:7.

“I will remove their stubborn hearts and give them obedient hearts” Ezekiel 11:19.

Get the picture? God can supernaturally change your heart. He can reach in and remake you. He can give you faith. Do you have wrong desires? He can change them, like the king in Proverbs 21:1. Are you stubborn? He can fix that. He can do ANYTHING. Just ask Him!

I have seen it myself. I memorized Proverbs 21:1 years ago, and I still pray it all the time:

“God, change my heart because I know ‘the king’s heart is like channels of water in the hand of the Lord.’ PLEASE TURN MY HEART wherever you wish.”

I pray it for my family—I pray God gives each of us a heart that hungers for His word, a heart that loves Jesus and His people, a heart that is humble toward God and humble and helpful toward His church.

Join me in that prayer!

ΑΩ

MARRIAGE IS A TEACHING TOOL. Jeremiah 31:20.

We think romance is the point of life. Far more than half our songs and movies are about romance.

Our culture worships romance like an IDOL. Yet God created romance. Imagine—God Himself created His number-one rival.

He created those feelings, the passion, the electric charge when two hands touch, the sparkle in the eye and the run-away fantasies that can make you crazy before you’ve even met him or her. God understands all of that. And God created marriage to contain all of that, to make sense of it. And to build homes and families.

But marriage is not your life’s purpose.

God created marriage and romance to teach us something about Himself. How many times does the Bible refer to God’s people as His Bride? And what is characteristic of marriage? A deeply felt, life-altering passion AND commitment to another person.

But while we are on this earth, we are not married, but betrothed.

And what is characteristic of the betrothal period?

“Longing” might be the number-one, most common feeling among the engaged the world over. You long for the one to whom you are betrothed. And you know what? Jesus longs for you.

*Incidentally, the scripture’s requirement of abstinence before marriage further underscores the longing that exists between Jesus and His Bride. All those months (or years) you spend engaged and wrestling with self-control before marriage are an illustration of the relationship between Christ and the church: throughout our entire lives on earth, we can only long for His presence–and He longs for ours as well. Wrap your mind around that!

In Jeremiah 31, God explains that Israel has betrayed Him, “even though I married them” v.32. He is FULLY COMMITTED to His people. He repeatedly calls them “Virgin.” “Return, Virgin Israel!” Jeremiah 31:21. God says His “inner being longs” for His people, 31:20, and that He delights in them: “I will take delight in them to do what is good for them” 32:41.

God loves you and longs for the day when we will see Him as He is, when He no longer has to hide Himself and His Glory. God LONGS for that day.

And He longs for YOU. Imagine.

God, help us slow down and enjoy the fact that You love us so much that You delight in us, You long for us.

ΑΩ

BLOOM WHERE YOU’RE PLANTED. Jeremiah 29:5-7.

Everyone should train as an endurance runner. Running teaches great lessons: Go one more mile. One more block. One more yard. One more step. Never quit. You can do it!

My mom used to say, “bloom where you’re planted.” That was her way of saying: Do the best you can do in the pot you’re in. Stop trying to change pots.

When things are tough, we look for a way out. We quit jobs, we quit hobbies, we quit friendships and marriages, we quit careers, churches, sports teams, we quit on our dreams. Some quit life itself.

But you will never learn the advanced lessons of true maturity if you quit too soon.

Some things can only be learned through long periods of struggle and pain. PLAN for pain. EXPECT struggle. Life is an endurance race. It is not a sprint but a marathon. You will suffer and you will have to GUT. IT. OUT. Expecting the struggle makes it easier. Jeremiah wrote a letter to the exiles who had been deported to Babylon. They were anxious to come home and resume their lives in Jerusalem. It was not to be.

“Build houses and live in them. Plant gardens and eat their produce. Take wives and have sons and daughters. Take wives for your sons and give your daughters to men in marriage so that they may bear sons and daughters. Multiply. Increase there. Do not decrease. Seek the welfare of the city where I have sent you. Pray to the Lord on its behalf, for when the city prospers, you will prosper.” Jeremiah 29:5-7.

If you find yourself in Babylon, bloom THERE.

Stop looking for that next big thing. Work hard, be creative, flourish. Bloom! Make a difference! Ask God to bless your Babylon, your difficult situation.

What did Churchill say—he whose iron will won history’s greatest war?

“Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never give in, except to convictions of honor and good sense.”

God, give us strength to ENDURE and faith to trust You with everything.

ΑΩ